Gastos Casa
09 enero, 2023
1. Gastos (cálculos antiguos)
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::select(-Tiempo,-link) %>%
dplyr::select(fecha, gasto, monto, gastador,obs) %>% tail(30) %>%
knitr::kable(format = "markdown", size=12)| fecha | gasto | monto | gastador | obs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/11/2022 | Diosi | 17535 | Tami | Correa petsu |
| 12/11/2022 | Gas | 76350 | Andrés | NA |
| 12/11/2022 | Enceres | 16986 | Andrés | uber ida matri fran |
| 14/11/2022 | Comida | 51263 | Tami | NA |
| 19/11/2022 | Comida | 2943 | Tami | NA |
| 20/11/2022 | Transferencia | 60000 | Tami | Deposito 30 lks |
| 22/11/2022 | VTR | 21990 | Andrés | entel |
| 22/11/2022 | Comida | 106204 | Tami | NA |
| 26/11/2022 | Comida | 66000 | Andrés | NA |
| 29/11/2022 | Netflix | 8240 | Tami | NA |
| 2/12/2022 | Comida | 52227 | Tami | NA |
| 3/12/2022 | Electricidad | 24773 | Andrés | es del mes pasado |
| 4/12/2022 | Comida | 30844 | Tami | Uber Eats cumpleaños |
| 4/12/2022 | Comida | 7190 | Tami | Queso cabra laminado |
| 11/12/2022 | Comida | 56044 | Tami | NA |
| 12/12/2022 | Diosi | 20990 | Tami | Antiparasitario |
| 12/12/2022 | Gaviscón y Paracetamol | 12040 | Tami | NA |
| 12/12/2022 | Diosi | 16500 | Tami | Pack Dental Life |
| 19/12/2022 | Bencina + Tag cumple Delox | 15000 | Tami | NA |
| 19/12/2022 | Plata Reciclaje y Basurero | 20000 | Tami | NA |
| 19/12/2022 | Comida | 71002 | Tami | NA |
| 25/12/2022 | VTR | 21990 | Andrés | NA |
| 25/12/2022 | Comida | 87705 | Andrés | Lider |
| 27/12/2022 | Netflix | 8320 | Tami | NA |
| 28/12/2022 | Electricidad | 52000 | Andrés | atrasado ENEL |
| 29/12/2022 | Regalo Matri Cony | 69990 | Tami | NA |
| 3/1/2023 | Comida | 32425 | Tami | NA |
| 6/1/2023 | Uber Matri Cony | 9709 | Tami | NA |
| 31/3/2019 | Comida | 9000 | Andrés | NA |
| 8/9/2019 | Comida | 24588 | Andrés | Super Lider |
#para ver las diferencias depués de la diosi
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador, fecha,.drop = F) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_media=mean(monto,na.rm=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha>"2019-W26",1,0)) %>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=lubridate::week(fecha)) %>%#después de diosi. Junio 24, 2019
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
assign("ts_gastos_casa_week_treat", ., envir = .GlobalEnv)
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Promedio de gasto por gastador", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat,ylim=c(0,75000), xlab="", ylab="")
par(mfrow=c(1,2))
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Antes de Diosi", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat[ts_gastos_casa_week_treat$treat==0,], xlab="", ylab="", ylim=c(0,70000))
gplots::plotmeans(gasto_media ~ gastador_nombre, main="Después de Diosi", data=ts_gastos_casa_week_treat[ts_gastos_casa_week_treat$treat==1,], xlab="", ylab="",ylim=c(0,70000))
library(ggiraph)
library(scales)
#if( requireNamespace("dplyr", quietly = TRUE)){
gg <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=tsibble::yearweek(fecha)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha_week>"2019 W26",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(week=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "week"))))%>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_week= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha_week, c("%Y-W%V"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador_nombre, fecha_simp) %>%
dplyr::summarise(monto_total=sum(monto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(tooltip= paste0(substr(gastador_nombre,1,1),"=",round(monto_total/1000,2))) %>%
ggplot(aes(hover_css = "fill:none;")) +#, ) +
#stat_summary(geom = "line", fun.y = median, size = 1, alpha=0.5, aes(color="blue")) +
geom_line(aes(x = fecha_simp, y = monto_total, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre)),size=1,alpha=.5) +
ggiraph::geom_point_interactive(aes(x = fecha_simp, y = monto_total, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre),tooltip=tooltip),size = 1) +
#geom_text(aes(x = fech_ing_qrt, y = perc_dup-0.05, label = paste0(n)), vjust = -1,hjust = 0, angle=45, size=3) +
# guides(color = F)+
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Semanas y Meses", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi; Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") + ggtitle( "Figura 4. Gastos por Gastador") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
scale_x_yearweek(date_breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35), legend.position='bottom')+
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
# x <- girafe(ggobj = gg)
# x <- girafe_options(x = x,
# opts_hover(css = "stroke:red;fill:orange") )
# if( interactive() ) print(x)
#}
tooltip_css <- "background-color:gray;color:white;font-style:italic;padding:10px;border-radius:10px 20px 10px 20px;"
#ggiraph(code = {print(gg)}, tooltip_extra_css = tooltip_css, tooltip_opacity = .75 )
x <- girafe(ggobj = gg)
x <- girafe_options(x,
opts_zoom(min = 1, max = 3), opts_hover(css =tooltip_css))xplot<-Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(month=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "month"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(month)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto)/1000) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = month, y = gasto_total)) +
geom_point()+
geom_line(size=1) +
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-03-23"),linetype = "dashed", color="red") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses/Año", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi") +
ggtitle( "Figura. Suma de Gastos por Mes") +
scale_x_date(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 month", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 45))
plotly::ggplotly(plot) plot2<-Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(day)%>%
summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto)/1000) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = day, y = gasto_total)) +
geom_line(size=1) +
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2020-03-23"),linetype = "dashed", color="red") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses/Año", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi") +
ggtitle( "Figura. Suma de Gastos por Día") +
scale_x_date(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=scales::date_format("%m/%y")) +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 45))
plotly::ggplotly(plot2) tsData <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(day)%>%
summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=case_when(day>as.Date("2019-06-02")~1,TRUE~0))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=case_when(day>as.Date("2020-03-10")~covid+1,TRUE~covid))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=as.factor(covid))%>%
data.frame()tsData_gastos <-ts(tsData$gasto_total, frequency=7)
mstsData_gastos <- forecast::msts(Gastos_casa$monto, seasonal.periods=c(7,30))
tsData_gastos = decompose(tsData_gastos)
#plot(tsData_Santiago, title="Descomposición del número de casos confirmados para Santiago")
forecast::autoplot(tsData_gastos, main="Descomposición de los Gastos Diarios")+
theme_bw()+ labs(x="Weeks")
tsdata_gastos_trend<-cbind(tsData,trend=as.vector(tsData_gastos$trend))%>% na.omit()#tsData_gastos$trend
#Using the inputted variables, a Type-2 Sum Squares ANCOVA Lagged Dependent Variable model is fitted which estimates the difference in means between interrupted and non-interrupted time periods, while accounting for the lag of the dependent variable and any further specified covariates.
#Typically such analyses use Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to handle the serial dependence of the residuals of a linear model, which is estimated either as part of the ARIMA process or through a standard linear regression modeling process [9,17]. All such time series methods enable the effect of the event to be separated from general trends and serial dependencies in time, thereby enabling valid statistical inferences to be made about whether an intervention has had an effect on a time series.
#it uses Type-2 Sum Squares ANCOVA Lagged Dependent Variable model
#ITSA model da cuenta de observaciones autocorrelacionadas e impactos dinámicos mediante una regresión de deltas en rezagados. Una vez que se incorporan en el modelo, se controlan.
#residual autocorrelation assumptions
#TSA allows the model to account for baseline levels and trends present in the data therefore allowing us to attribute significant changes to the interruption
#RDestimate(all~agecell,data=metro_region,cutpoint = 21)
tsdata_gastos_trend<-cbind(tsData,trend=as.vector(tsData_gastos$trend))%>% na.omit()
itsa_metro_region_quar2<-
its.analysis::itsa.model(time = "day", depvar = "trend",data=tsdata_gastos_trend,
interrupt_var = "covid",
alpha = 0.05,no.plots = F, bootstrap = TRUE, Reps = 10000, print = F) 
print(itsa_metro_region_quar2)## [[1]]
## [1] "ITSA Model Fit"
##
## $aov.result
## Anova Table (Type II tests)
##
## Response: depvar
## Sum Sq Df F value Pr(>F)
## interrupt_var 5.3251e+08 2 5.673 0.0036 **
## lag_depvar 7.9728e+10 1 1698.760 <2e-16 ***
## Residuals 2.4922e+10 531
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## $tukey.result
## Tukey multiple comparisons of means
## 95% family-wise confidence level
##
## Fit: stats::aov(formula = x$depvar ~ x$interrupt_var)
##
## $`x$interrupt_var`
## diff lwr upr p adj
## 1-0 7228.838 964.7802 13492.90 0.0188817
## 2-0 27739.221 21990.2713 33488.17 0.0000000
## 2-1 20510.383 17057.5517 23963.21 0.0000000
##
##
## $data
## depvar interrupt_var lag_depvar
## 2 19269.29 0 16010.00
## 3 24139.00 0 19269.29
## 4 23816.14 0 24139.00
## 5 26510.14 0 23816.14
## 6 23456.71 0 26510.14
## 7 24276.71 0 23456.71
## 8 18818.71 0 24276.71
## 9 18517.14 0 18818.71
## 10 15475.29 0 18517.14
## 11 16365.29 0 15475.29
## 12 12621.29 0 16365.29
## 13 12679.86 0 12621.29
## 14 13440.71 0 12679.86
## 15 15382.86 0 13440.71
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## 17 14644.14 0 13459.71
## 18 13927.00 0 14644.14
## 19 22034.57 0 13927.00
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## 21 20390.57 0 20986.00
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## 24 22529.57 0 21782.57
## 25 24642.71 0 22529.57
## 26 17692.29 0 24642.71
## 27 19668.29 0 17692.29
## 28 28640.00 0 19668.29
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## 31 25617.86 0 28331.57
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## 36 30784.86 0 33634.57
## 37 34770.57 0 30784.86
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## 277 63285.29 2 63044.86
## 278 61395.43 2 63285.29
## 279 67969.43 2 61395.43
## 280 60792.57 2 67969.43
## 281 56859.14 2 60792.57
## 282 44899.43 2 56859.14
## 283 43064.14 2 44899.43
## 284 62790.29 2 43064.14
## 285 69120.71 2 62790.29
## 286 69589.43 2 69120.71
## 287 66633.29 2 69589.43
## 288 65588.57 2 66633.29
## 289 70168.57 2 65588.57
## 290 74644.71 2 70168.57
## 291 52891.00 2 74644.71
## 292 41560.57 2 52891.00
## 293 34704.86 2 41560.57
## 294 46520.00 2 34704.86
## 295 50231.00 2 46520.00
## 296 49216.71 2 50231.00
## 297 76914.86 2 49216.71
## 298 83720.71 2 76914.86
## 299 84485.00 2 83720.71
## 300 89765.00 2 84485.00
## 301 87702.86 2 89765.00
## 302 82013.86 2 87702.86
## 303 85982.43 2 82013.86
## 304 57248.43 2 85982.43
## 305 52968.43 2 57248.43
## 306 52601.86 2 52968.43
## 307 45493.29 2 52601.86
## 308 42298.86 2 45493.29
## 309 46423.71 2 42298.86
## 310 37898.00 2 46423.71
## 311 36435.14 2 37898.00
## 312 30209.57 2 36435.14
## 313 34541.86 2 30209.57
## 314 33604.71 2 34541.86
## 315 37990.71 2 33604.71
## 316 35683.43 2 37990.71
## 317 65201.86 2 35683.43
## 318 62730.57 2 65201.86
## 319 64589.14 2 62730.57
## 320 73744.86 2 64589.14
## 321 76477.71 2 73744.86
## 322 105647.43 2 76477.71
## 323 103790.29 2 105647.43
## 324 76122.29 2 103790.29
## 325 74746.14 2 76122.29
## 326 72865.71 2 74746.14
## 327 63652.57 2 72865.71
## 328 60358.29 2 63652.57
## 329 25957.14 2 60358.29
## 330 30178.43 2 25957.14
## 331 30681.57 2 30178.43
## 332 33337.29 2 30681.57
## 333 32582.71 2 33337.29
## 334 39184.43 2 32582.71
## 335 40415.71 2 39184.43
## 336 34975.43 2 40415.71
## 337 34076.14 2 34975.43
## 338 34221.14 2 34076.14
## 339 28862.57 2 34221.14
## 340 35729.86 2 28862.57
## 341 36489.29 2 35729.86
## 342 36785.14 2 36489.29
## 343 37787.71 2 36785.14
## 344 39832.14 2 37787.71
## 345 41917.86 2 39832.14
## 346 41633.57 2 41917.86
## 347 33557.00 2 41633.57
## 348 22759.57 2 33557.00
## 349 28877.86 2 22759.57
## 350 27574.00 2 28877.86
## 351 27104.71 2 27574.00
## 352 24376.14 2 27104.71
## 353 29732.29 2 24376.14
## 354 34030.00 2 29732.29
## 355 39139.71 2 34030.00
## 356 37066.57 2 39139.71
## 357 38509.29 2 37066.57
## 358 40957.29 2 38509.29
## 359 49423.00 2 40957.29
## 360 50053.29 2 49423.00
## 361 50284.14 2 50053.29
## 362 53103.86 2 50284.14
## 363 50223.00 2 53103.86
## 364 49587.14 2 50223.00
## 365 41167.71 2 49587.14
## 366 37958.71 2 41167.71
## 367 33582.29 2 37958.71
## 368 31039.43 2 33582.29
## 369 26526.57 2 31039.43
## 370 34869.43 2 26526.57
## 371 37487.43 2 34869.43
## 372 46514.43 2 37487.43
## 373 39613.43 2 46514.43
## 374 38980.57 2 39613.43
## 375 37306.14 2 38980.57
## 376 36771.29 2 37306.14
## 377 26317.00 2 36771.29
## 378 31580.71 2 26317.00
## 379 23626.57 2 31580.71
## 380 33035.71 2 23626.57
## 381 44864.57 2 33035.71
## 382 48946.14 2 44864.57
## 383 46969.57 2 48946.14
## 384 49249.57 2 46969.57
## 385 56370.14 2 49249.57
## 386 67228.71 2 56370.14
## 387 59457.29 2 67228.71
## 388 53124.71 2 59457.29
## 389 52814.14 2 53124.71
## 390 61262.00 2 52814.14
## 391 61861.14 2 61262.00
## 392 71784.71 2 61861.14
## 393 59313.29 2 71784.71
## 394 61107.00 2 59313.29
## 395 60603.43 2 61107.00
## 396 60012.57 2 60603.43
## 397 58280.43 2 60012.57
## 398 56862.71 2 58280.43
## 399 41704.43 2 56862.71
## 400 51533.00 2 41704.43
## 401 50388.71 2 51533.00
## 402 49205.29 2 50388.71
## 403 56533.29 2 49205.29
## 404 47996.14 2 56533.29
## 405 47207.57 2 47996.14
## 406 45292.00 2 47207.57
## 407 40343.43 2 45292.00
## 408 39004.86 2 40343.43
## 409 36788.43 2 39004.86
## 410 30027.57 2 36788.43
## 411 39040.14 2 30027.57
## 412 42390.14 2 39040.14
## 413 36291.14 2 42390.14
## 414 30668.29 2 36291.14
## 415 47693.00 2 30668.29
## 416 52094.43 2 47693.00
## 417 56592.57 2 52094.43
## 418 47971.43 2 56592.57
## 419 43762.43 2 47971.43
## 420 42246.71 2 43762.43
## 421 46352.43 2 42246.71
## 422 33094.86 2 46352.43
## 423 32784.86 2 33094.86
## 424 26212.43 2 32784.86
## 425 32611.57 2 26212.43
## 426 42144.86 2 32611.57
## 427 50034.86 2 42144.86
## 428 46332.00 2 50034.86
## 429 42976.29 2 46332.00
## 430 39456.29 2 42976.29
## 431 39328.29 2 39456.29
## 432 35296.14 2 39328.29
## 433 30875.43 2 35296.14
## 434 27709.00 2 30875.43
## 435 29513.29 2 27709.00
## 436 31630.43 2 29513.29
## 437 29346.14 2 31630.43
## 438 34916.86 2 29346.14
## 439 42020.86 2 34916.86
## 440 38303.00 2 42020.86
## 441 37966.43 2 38303.00
## 442 41408.14 2 37966.43
## 443 38988.14 2 41408.14
## 444 43555.29 2 38988.14
## 445 38114.00 2 43555.29
## 446 27847.86 2 38114.00
## 447 26517.00 2 27847.86
## 448 39518.29 2 26517.00
## 449 39153.71 2 39518.29
## 450 45623.14 2 39153.71
## 451 40627.43 2 45623.14
## 452 41027.71 2 40627.43
## 453 42882.86 2 41027.71
## 454 47139.43 2 42882.86
## 455 35547.57 2 47139.43
## 456 41099.00 2 35547.57
## 457 35859.57 2 41099.00
## 458 44524.57 2 35859.57
## 459 48554.29 2 44524.57
## 460 51554.29 2 48554.29
## 461 47810.29 2 51554.29
## 462 50490.00 2 47810.29
## 463 50720.71 2 50490.00
## 464 52720.71 2 50720.71
## 465 52145.57 2 52720.71
## 466 55515.57 2 52145.57
## 467 52457.00 2 55515.57
## 468 58239.57 2 52457.00
## 469 50523.57 2 58239.57
## 470 47788.57 2 50523.57
## 471 46170.00 2 47788.57
## 472 42305.57 2 46170.00
## 473 46605.57 2 42305.57
## 474 55149.57 2 46605.57
## 475 48769.57 2 55149.57
## 476 50719.43 2 48769.57
## 477 44753.71 2 50719.43
## 478 42898.00 2 44753.71
## 479 46141.14 2 42898.00
## 480 34022.57 2 46141.14
## 481 26651.86 2 34022.57
## 482 28791.86 2 26651.86
## 483 31879.00 2 28791.86
## 484 33584.71 2 31879.00
## 485 34690.43 2 33584.71
## 486 27410.43 2 34690.43
## 487 41755.00 2 27410.43
## 488 49379.57 2 41755.00
## 489 57198.86 2 49379.57
## 490 51144.57 2 57198.86
## 491 56677.43 2 51144.57
## 492 65416.43 2 56677.43
## 493 69779.71 2 65416.43
## 494 54046.00 2 69779.71
## 495 43259.57 2 54046.00
## 496 40998.57 2 43259.57
## 497 41368.57 2 40998.57
## 498 42274.29 2 41368.57
## 499 35962.71 2 42274.29
## 500 38709.00 2 35962.71
## 501 44778.14 2 38709.00
## 502 51282.43 2 44778.14
## 503 52094.86 2 51282.43
## 504 52221.43 2 52094.86
## 505 45011.43 2 52221.43
## 506 46545.43 2 45011.43
## 507 42263.00 2 46545.43
## 508 45417.43 2 42263.00
## 509 45034.71 2 45417.43
## 510 37840.57 2 45034.71
## 511 39135.43 2 37840.57
## 512 38191.14 2 39135.43
## 513 39456.86 2 38191.14
## 514 42479.14 2 39456.86
## 515 34282.57 2 42479.14
## 516 28878.43 2 34282.57
## 517 56227.14 2 28878.43
## 518 65569.43 2 56227.14
## 519 69751.29 2 65569.43
## 520 62171.71 2 69751.29
## 521 63705.14 2 62171.71
## 522 79257.86 2 63705.14
## 523 87244.71 2 79257.86
## 524 58568.00 2 87244.71
## 525 52695.29 2 58568.00
## 526 48911.00 2 52695.29
## 527 53924.00 2 48911.00
## 528 53358.86 2 53924.00
## 529 42121.14 2 53358.86
## 530 47835.71 2 42121.14
## 531 62329.29 2 47835.71
## 532 56056.86 2 62329.29
## 533 59946.43 2 56056.86
## 534 64511.57 2 59946.43
## 535 61137.43 2 64511.57
## 536 55448.71 2 61137.43
##
## $alpha
## [1] 0.05
##
## $itsa.result
## [1] "Significant variation between time periods with chosen alpha"
##
## $group.means
## interrupt_var count mean s.d.
## 1 0 37 22066.04 6308.636
## 2 1 120 29463.10 9187.258
## 3 2 379 49973.48 15703.161
##
## $dependent
## [1] 19269.29 24139.00 23816.14 26510.14 23456.71 24276.71 18818.71
## [8] 18517.14 15475.29 16365.29 12621.29 12679.86 13440.71 15382.86
## [15] 13459.71 14644.14 13927.00 22034.57 20986.00 20390.57 22554.14
## [22] 21782.57 22529.57 24642.71 17692.29 19668.29 28640.00 28706.00
## [29] 28331.57 25617.86 27223.29 31622.57 32021.43 33634.57 30784.86
## [36] 34770.57 38443.00 35073.00 31422.29 30103.29 19319.29 27926.29
## [43] 30715.43 31962.29 39790.14 39211.57 44548.57 49398.00 41039.00
## [50] 34821.29 29123.57 21275.71 28476.14 24561.86 20323.57 25370.00
## [57] 26811.86 27151.86 27623.29 22896.57 41889.29 44000.14 38558.00
## [64] 43373.86 49001.00 61213.29 58939.57 42046.86 39191.71 42646.43
## [71] 36121.57 30915.57 20273.43 23938.29 19274.29 21662.29 15819.00
## [78] 18126.14 17240.71 16127.71 13917.14 15379.86 19510.14 24567.29
## [85] 25700.43 25729.00 26435.00 31157.14 29818.43 30962.43 28746.71
## [92] 27830.71 28252.14 28717.57 21365.43 24816.86 16838.57 15529.14
## [99] 13286.29 13629.43 14404.86 19524.86 18475.71 22495.00 22254.57
## [106] 24173.29 27466.43 24602.43 20531.14 20846.43 23875.71 36312.71
## [113] 34244.00 36347.43 39779.71 42018.71 39372.57 33444.00 29255.86
## [120] 31640.14 29671.14 31023.71 39723.43 39314.14 38239.86 34649.43
## [127] 36688.43 42867.57 42226.86 32155.14 33603.00 37254.43 33145.57
## [134] 31299.43 30252.00 26310.71 27929.86 27666.14 25017.57 27335.00
## [141] 25760.71 18436.86 21906.00 19418.14 22826.14 23444.29 25264.86
## [148] 25473.29 27366.86 28855.86 32326.86 27141.43 26297.71 23499.14
## [155] 30246.29 39931.86 38020.43 35004.00 40750.86 42363.29 46273.57
## [162] 41083.29 35711.29 41921.71 60583.29 63115.57 61300.14 57666.43
## [169] 55834.00 58927.71 57810.57 48987.14 52219.29 56503.57 56545.00
## [176] 64705.57 53833.29 50114.00 39592.43 29907.29 33923.29 45489.00
## [183] 44866.29 51680.57 58257.00 70600.57 76648.00 69430.14 69651.57
## [190] 77745.14 72795.86 67670.71 55357.86 48524.00 50154.43 45111.57
## [197] 36147.00 43501.57 41472.43 41058.00 41605.57 49382.86 59558.57
## [204] 59134.57 61109.00 63004.43 67344.29 78180.86 69117.86 55597.57
## [211] 49426.14 39119.43 35636.86 39201.14 27777.00 47207.00 55587.29
## [218] 56619.71 82679.86 91259.57 93552.71 102242.71 91884.00 85013.86
## [225] 84535.29 80700.43 79740.57 85163.14 86724.86 80355.00 74875.14
## [232] 81347.00 66062.43 56946.43 47732.14 38129.71 42928.29 45392.57
## [239] 37895.43 30660.29 42430.86 35845.14 40350.43 31494.71 30013.29
## [246] 34197.57 37430.14 26932.43 33729.86 38081.43 44028.00 47139.71
## [253] 46558.86 58350.57 78380.00 78168.29 70510.86 72207.14 67881.00
## [260] 69536.43 62390.71 50113.14 45565.57 45805.29 41348.57 51426.86
## [267] 47160.57 51907.43 49751.43 54407.43 54746.29 61634.57 58926.43
## [274] 69999.29 63044.86 63285.29 61395.43 67969.43 60792.57 56859.14
## [281] 44899.43 43064.14 62790.29 69120.71 69589.43 66633.29 65588.57
## [288] 70168.57 74644.71 52891.00 41560.57 34704.86 46520.00 50231.00
## [295] 49216.71 76914.86 83720.71 84485.00 89765.00 87702.86 82013.86
## [302] 85982.43 57248.43 52968.43 52601.86 45493.29 42298.86 46423.71
## [309] 37898.00 36435.14 30209.57 34541.86 33604.71 37990.71 35683.43
## [316] 65201.86 62730.57 64589.14 73744.86 76477.71 105647.43 103790.29
## [323] 76122.29 74746.14 72865.71 63652.57 60358.29 25957.14 30178.43
## [330] 30681.57 33337.29 32582.71 39184.43 40415.71 34975.43 34076.14
## [337] 34221.14 28862.57 35729.86 36489.29 36785.14 37787.71 39832.14
## [344] 41917.86 41633.57 33557.00 22759.57 28877.86 27574.00 27104.71
## [351] 24376.14 29732.29 34030.00 39139.71 37066.57 38509.29 40957.29
## [358] 49423.00 50053.29 50284.14 53103.86 50223.00 49587.14 41167.71
## [365] 37958.71 33582.29 31039.43 26526.57 34869.43 37487.43 46514.43
## [372] 39613.43 38980.57 37306.14 36771.29 26317.00 31580.71 23626.57
## [379] 33035.71 44864.57 48946.14 46969.57 49249.57 56370.14 67228.71
## [386] 59457.29 53124.71 52814.14 61262.00 61861.14 71784.71 59313.29
## [393] 61107.00 60603.43 60012.57 58280.43 56862.71 41704.43 51533.00
## [400] 50388.71 49205.29 56533.29 47996.14 47207.57 45292.00 40343.43
## [407] 39004.86 36788.43 30027.57 39040.14 42390.14 36291.14 30668.29
## [414] 47693.00 52094.43 56592.57 47971.43 43762.43 42246.71 46352.43
## [421] 33094.86 32784.86 26212.43 32611.57 42144.86 50034.86 46332.00
## [428] 42976.29 39456.29 39328.29 35296.14 30875.43 27709.00 29513.29
## [435] 31630.43 29346.14 34916.86 42020.86 38303.00 37966.43 41408.14
## [442] 38988.14 43555.29 38114.00 27847.86 26517.00 39518.29 39153.71
## [449] 45623.14 40627.43 41027.71 42882.86 47139.43 35547.57 41099.00
## [456] 35859.57 44524.57 48554.29 51554.29 47810.29 50490.00 50720.71
## [463] 52720.71 52145.57 55515.57 52457.00 58239.57 50523.57 47788.57
## [470] 46170.00 42305.57 46605.57 55149.57 48769.57 50719.43 44753.71
## [477] 42898.00 46141.14 34022.57 26651.86 28791.86 31879.00 33584.71
## [484] 34690.43 27410.43 41755.00 49379.57 57198.86 51144.57 56677.43
## [491] 65416.43 69779.71 54046.00 43259.57 40998.57 41368.57 42274.29
## [498] 35962.71 38709.00 44778.14 51282.43 52094.86 52221.43 45011.43
## [505] 46545.43 42263.00 45417.43 45034.71 37840.57 39135.43 38191.14
## [512] 39456.86 42479.14 34282.57 28878.43 56227.14 65569.43 69751.29
## [519] 62171.71 63705.14 79257.86 87244.71 58568.00 52695.29 48911.00
## [526] 53924.00 53358.86 42121.14 47835.71 62329.29 56056.86 59946.43
## [533] 64511.57 61137.43 55448.71
##
## $interrupt_var
## [1] 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
## [38] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [75] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [112] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
## [149] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [186] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [223] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [260] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [297] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [334] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [371] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [408] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [445] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [482] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## [519] 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
## Levels: 0 1 2
##
## $residuals
## 2 3 4 5 6 7
## 2016.29873 4039.26322 -536.93634 2439.05597 -2967.38630 519.56220
## 8 9 10 11 12 13
## -5654.64835 -1189.05245 -3967.50881 -420.66711 -4942.01759 -1613.33358
## 14 15 16 17 18 19
## -903.63433 373.95497 -3245.50888 -381.35444 -2133.00979 6600.93394
## 20 21 22 23 24 25
## -1529.01339 -1208.59084 1475.04429 -1186.24994 234.66177 1695.35428
## 26 27 28 29 30 31
## -7100.75139 945.94411 8191.76564 421.62360 -10.45119 -2397.12926
## 32 33 34 35 36 37
## 1578.53201 4575.59225 1131.99224 2396.76230 -1861.91533 4612.81780
## 38 39 40 41 42 43
## 4306.64172 -2270.95841 -2978.22200 -1108.58772 -10740.53684 7285.50540
## 44 45 46 47 48 49
## 2557.05770 1367.80075 8106.61857 690.98139 6533.32159 6721.26756
## 50 51 52 53 54 55
## -5873.35675 -4790.09051 -5057.08210 -7928.39886 6126.56401 -4076.77408
## 56 57 58 59 60 61
## -4896.21498 3852.04891 886.21653 -33.14116 141.32206 -4997.15091
## 62 63 64 65 66 67
## 18124.00565 3646.10371 -3639.71984 5929.45457 7350.29533 14647.67968
## 68 69 70 71 72 73
## 1707.41913 -13199.37055 -1299.95209 4648.52251 -4893.77712 -4400.78741
## 74 75 76 77 78 79
## -10495.86667 2464.13078 -5400.85626 1060.80963 -6868.22097 542.60836
## 80 81 82 83 84 85
## -2357.94224 -2697.58457 -3936.03118 -542.54301 2310.16782 3759.80552
## 86 87 88 89 90 91
## 475.90070 -485.24602 195.79891 4301.30195 -1161.86180 1151.40808
## 92 93 94 95 96 97
## -2063.50727 -1044.24147 177.24670 274.58797 -7484.07301 2388.91937
## 98 99 100 101 102 103
## -8603.93900 -2944.91337 -4044.07958 -1741.96360 -1266.24544 3176.47392
## 104 105 106 107 108 109
## -2344.61777 2591.01817 -1159.96510 968.74611 2586.03113 -3154.29042
## 110 111 112 113 114 115
## -4724.07976 -852.82111 1901.08539 11692.22392 -1239.30827 2670.99226
## 116 117 118 119 120 121
## 4266.08560 3507.23285 -1094.51420 -4711.87167 -3721.83716 2320.48773
## 122 123 124 125 126 127
## -1731.01300 1341.33719 8859.67839 851.82291 135.01860 -2517.09928
## 128 129 130 131 132 133
## 2657.87980 7056.10397 1018.35634 -8493.74047 1751.02898 4137.85929
## 134 135 136 137 138 139
## -3160.25600 -1417.61001 -852.56663 -3878.99942 1182.57080 -495.34740
## 140 141 142 143 144 145
## -2913.58351 1717.18020 -1881.21138 -7830.04407 2035.95707 -3481.94487
## 146 147 148 149 150 151
## 2099.01799 -259.48010 1021.18836 -360.52023 1351.00395 1186.10657
## 152 153 154 155 156 157
## 3356.57302 -4860.52243 -1175.14077 -3236.78893 5954.70319 9747.13446
## 158 159 160 161 162 163
## -3218.18172 -4565.11600 3816.37283 409.33830 2911.28454 -5694.35227
## 164 165 166 167 168 169
## -6533.01396 4369.46718 17606.67946 3839.43537 -187.76120 -2235.83024
## 170 171 172 173 174 175
## -894.47280 3799.73501 -19.54301 -7867.22828 3071.53980 4532.78304
## 176 177 178 179 180 181
## 832.19862 8956.58519 -9043.36808 -3266.50039 -10539.54537 -11034.85832
## 182 183 184 185 186 187
## 1440.41186 9498.44128 -1226.08601 6132.09549 6756.73948 13356.27730
## 188 189 190 191 192 193
## 8622.49105 -3877.35655 2648.34699 10548.51661 -1469.91702 -2272.21759
## 194 195 196 197 198 199
## -10108.63399 -6188.10301 1411.20437 -5055.71394 -9615.71522 5568.75948
## 200 201 202 203 204 205
## -2884.06837 -1526.18775 -616.64301 6682.37876 10065.19777 753.44901
## 206 207 208 209 210 211
## 3098.21085 3269.11919 5953.45688 12999.47771 -5528.48186 -11132.89408
## 212 213 214 215 216 217
## -5495.33321 -10411.75202 -4892.15568 1713.90371 -12823.38433 16584.77628
## 218 219 220 221 222 223
## 7994.36554 1707.22205 26865.61339 12683.68207 7483.06647 14170.17242
## 224 225 226 227 228 229
## -3778.62690 -1601.18377 3920.81655 503.95686 2893.56943 9154.50649
## 230 231 232 233 234 235
## 5979.99773 -1753.90362 -1670.15232 9587.96278 -11349.30670 -7115.34158
## 236 237 238 239 240 241
## -8367.46214 -9921.88011 3263.71657 1536.79800 -8112.71978 -8799.65184
## 242 243 244 245 246 247
## 9290.29237 -7576.16277 2681.26695 -10109.48780 -3856.09192 1622.11426
## 248 249 250 251 252 253
## 1200.01544 -12121.11564 3845.30534 2259.81568 4405.60493 2323.42015
## 254 255 256 257 258 259
## -975.29384 11323.75705 21053.97801 3348.00986 -4124.50163 4259.99283
## 260 261 262 263 264 265
## -1547.73263 3886.26811 -4705.34302 -10741.65104 -4565.65386 -353.96560
## 266 267 268 269 270 271
## -5020.05293 8950.84963 -4118.08805 4355.06039 -1946.97521 4592.13449
## 272 273 274 275 276 277
## 864.31316 7456.63173 -1267.92935 12170.29426 -4455.47232 1859.14546
## 278 279 280 281 282 283
## -240.70861 7983.94460 -4934.82498 -2599.78910 -11123.93868 -2513.28096
## 284 285 286 287 288 289
## 18815.85092 7916.92372 2856.46756 -509.06325 1028.19895 6520.68114
## 290 291 292 293 294 295
## 6996.52602 -18666.77456 -10996.91070 -7956.31700 9846.79529 3238.12452
## 296 297 298 299 300 301
## -1017.45067 27566.59723 10180.13451 4999.99738 9612.44922 2938.60912
## 302 303 304 305 306 307
## -949.25858 7988.24193 -24212.01752 -3394.95153 -23.25323 -6811.65109
## 308 309 310 311 312 313
## -3797.25784 3117.70109 -9010.77689 -3027.04066 -7974.91242 1794.95863
## 314 315 316 317 318 319
## -2926.12174 2278.40461 -3859.73415 27673.94123 -579.55196 3437.50839
## 320 321 322 323 324 325
## 10969.89526 5705.89970 32488.66139 5153.88770 -20892.03264 1897.81676
## 326 327 328 329 330 331
## 1219.34922 -6351.37560 -1598.64892 -33122.47202 1145.71814 -2038.12606
## 332 333 334 335 336 337
## 178.12942 -2896.01592 4364.76181 -170.07133 -6685.79585 -2833.38638
## 338 339 340 341 342 343
## -1902.92550 -7388.14392 4159.46548 -1079.18219 -1446.63085 -702.46919
## 344 345 346 347 348 349
## 466.28592 766.34005 -1339.66589 -9167.93435 -12911.06328 2637.99356
## 350 351 352 353 354 355
## -4009.74263 -3340.20365 -5658.88802 2080.46417 1699.97596 3055.94837
## 356 357 358 359 360 361
## -3480.15950 -226.70522 961.18844 7288.75219 524.85018 205.19844
## 362 363 364 365 366 367
## 2823.27575 -2520.39741 -640.03468 -8504.08813 -4359.32763 -5932.92733
## 368 369 370 371 372 373
## -4653.29137 -6945.14714 5339.36357 670.48265 7410.84944 -7374.58067
## 374 375 376 377 378 379
## -1979.91459 -3101.58832 -2173.95349 -12161.08026 2233.69473 -10317.92097
## 380 381 382 383 384 385
## 6038.58905 9649.24200 3399.16423 -2142.36396 1864.02790 6993.18461
## 386 387 388 389 390 391
## 11632.45309 -5623.15046 -5167.94240 52.52824 8771.64702 1992.19907
## 392 393 394 395 396 397
## 11392.46265 -9746.48618 2940.11687 869.86605 718.84204 -497.22993
## 398 399 400 401 402 403
## -402.04300 -14322.05806 8746.17707 -982.65329 -1166.63124 7195.00783
## 404 405 406 407 408 409
## -7742.61180 -1074.60783 -2301.41928 -5576.87793 -2593.23095 -3640.51442
## 410 411 412 413 414 415
## -8465.48188 6452.20815 1930.38035 -7094.60179 -7390.42457 14545.44781
## 416 417 418 419 420 421
## 4077.02263 4730.83670 -7819.10786 -4498.16455 -2337.62246 3091.95838
## 422 423 424 425 426 427
## -13751.65684 -2482.12928 -8783.79532 3355.88744 7299.98576 6863.35178
## 428 429 430 431 432 433
## -3730.84839 -3852.38539 -4441.41223 -1494.94741 -5415.29154 -6314.22134
## 434 435 436 437 438 439
## -5619.47646 -1049.54493 -508.31485 -4641.77137 2924.10089 5162.48580
## 440 441 442 443 444 445
## -4760.20035 -1849.49308 1886.19195 -3539.89598 3140.94144 -6289.41247
## 446 447 448 449 450 451
## -11802.98671 -4167.11229 9996.58066 -1723.67134 5064.18394 -5582.10721
## 452 453 454 455 456 457
## -818.42722 687.09508 3323.33371 -11986.33000 3689.74545 -6398.45354
## 458 459 460 461 462 463
## 6842.80750 3304.27244 2784.60913 -3579.67339 2370.15349 260.33160
## 464 465 466 467 468 469
## 2058.81940 -263.17847 3609.16712 -2392.85501 6061.15684 -6705.50011
## 470 471 472 473 474 475
## -2701.13346 -1930.88066 -4381.60442 3293.69379 8081.95551 -5760.60911
## 476 477 478 479 480 481
## 1761.71553 -5907.05762 -2552.15295 2311.82181 -12639.39980 -9425.42046
## 482 483 484 485 486 487
## -847.63585 370.37214 -620.30906 -1004.41255 -9250.17383 11452.94985
## 488 489 490 491 492 493
## 6548.57802 7708.35332 -5175.51162 5645.32520 9551.77558 6282.17831
## 494 495 496 497 498 499
## -13262.54974 -10306.71947 -3146.55605 -801.73646 -219.19035 -7321.83755
## 500 501 502 503 504 505
## 937.14826 4607.60963 5810.93903 942.34555 359.31952 -6961.23145
## 506 507 508 509 510 511
## 870.18087 -4752.08549 2142.73399 -995.14498 -7855.01465 -276.59525
## 512 513 514 515 516 517
## -2351.84481 -261.36541 1655.41063 -9180.90827 -7425.94018 24642.90113
## 518 519 520 521 522 523
## 10098.06751 6120.11533 -5112.00516 3041.62959 17255.00518 11657.69386
## 524 525 526 527 528 529
## -23994.96115 -4820.64437 -3475.53989 4842.75935 -100.87560 -10844.97857
## 530 531 532 533 534 535
## 4684.92163 14187.22919 -4744.28335 4623.79973 5791.68391 -1569.78029
## 536
## -4311.42539
##
## $fitted.values
## 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
## 17252.99 20099.74 24353.08 24071.09 26424.10 23757.15 24473.36 19706.20
## 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
## 19442.79 16785.95 17563.30 14293.19 14344.35 15008.90 16705.22 15025.50
## 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
## 16060.01 15433.64 22515.01 21599.16 21079.10 22968.82 22294.91 22947.36
## 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33
## 24793.04 18722.34 20448.23 28284.38 28342.02 28014.99 25644.75 27046.98
## 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
## 30889.44 31237.81 32646.77 30157.75 34136.36 37343.96 34400.51 31211.87
## 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49
## 30059.82 20640.78 28158.37 30594.48 31683.52 38520.59 38015.25 42676.73
## 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57
## 46912.36 39611.38 34180.65 29204.11 22349.58 28638.63 25219.79 21517.95
## 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65
## 25925.64 27185.00 27481.96 27893.72 23765.28 40354.04 42197.72 37444.40
## 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73
## 41650.70 46565.61 57232.15 55246.23 40491.67 37997.91 41015.35 35316.36
## 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81
## 30769.30 21474.15 24675.14 20601.48 22687.22 17583.53 19598.66 18825.30
## 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89
## 17853.17 15922.40 17199.98 20807.48 25224.53 26214.25 26239.20 26855.84
## 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
## 30980.29 29811.02 30810.22 28874.96 28074.90 28442.98 28849.50 22427.94
## 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105
## 25442.51 18474.06 17330.37 15371.39 15671.10 16348.38 20820.33 19903.98
## 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113
## 23414.54 23204.54 24880.40 27756.72 25255.22 21699.25 21974.63 24620.49
## 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121
## 35483.31 33676.44 35513.63 38511.48 40467.09 38155.87 32977.69 29319.66
## 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129
## 31402.16 29682.38 30863.75 38462.32 38104.84 37166.53 34030.55 35811.47
## 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137
## 41208.50 40648.88 31851.97 33116.57 36305.83 32717.04 31104.57 30189.71
## 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145
## 26747.29 28161.49 27931.15 25617.82 27641.93 26266.90 19870.04 22900.09
## 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153
## 20727.12 23703.77 24243.67 25833.81 26015.85 27669.75 28970.28 32001.95
## 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161
## 27472.86 26735.93 24291.58 30184.72 41238.61 39569.12 36934.48 41953.95
## 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169
## 43362.29 46777.64 42244.30 37552.25 42976.61 59276.14 61487.90 59902.26
## 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177
## 56728.47 55127.98 57830.11 56854.37 49147.75 51970.79 55712.80 55748.99
## 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185
## 62876.65 53380.50 50131.97 40942.14 32482.87 35990.56 46092.37 45548.48
## 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193
## 51500.26 57244.29 68025.51 73307.50 67003.22 67196.63 74265.77 69942.93
## 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201
## 65466.49 54712.10 48743.22 50167.29 45762.72 37932.81 44356.50 42584.19
## 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209
## 42222.21 42700.48 49493.37 58381.12 58010.79 59735.31 61390.83 65181.38
## 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217
## 74646.34 66730.47 54921.48 49531.18 40529.01 37487.24 40600.38 30622.22
## 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225
## 47592.92 54912.49 55814.24 78575.89 86069.65 88072.54 95662.63 86615.04
## 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233
## 80614.47 80196.47 76847.00 76008.64 80744.86 82108.90 76545.30 71759.04
## 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241
## 77411.74 64061.77 56099.60 48051.59 39664.57 43855.77 46008.15 39459.94
## 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249
## 33140.56 43421.31 37669.16 41604.20 33869.38 32575.46 36230.13 39053.54
## 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257
## 29884.55 35821.61 39622.40 44816.29 47534.15 47026.81 57326.02 74820.28
## 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265
## 74635.36 67947.15 69428.73 65650.16 67096.06 60854.79 50131.23 46159.25
## 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273
## 46368.62 42476.01 51278.66 47552.37 51698.40 49815.29 53881.97 54177.94
## 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281
## 60194.36 57828.99 67500.33 61426.14 61636.14 59985.48 65727.40 59458.93
## 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289
## 56023.37 45577.42 43974.43 61203.79 66732.96 67142.35 64560.37 63647.89
## 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297
## 67648.19 71557.77 52557.48 42661.17 36673.20 46992.88 50234.16 49348.26
## 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305
## 73540.58 79485.00 80152.55 84764.25 82963.12 77994.19 81460.45 56363.38
## 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313
## 52625.11 52304.94 46096.11 43306.01 46908.78 39462.18 38184.48 32746.90
## 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321
## 36530.84 35712.31 39543.16 37527.92 63310.12 61151.63 62774.96 70771.81
## 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329
## 73158.77 98636.40 97014.32 72848.33 71646.37 70003.95 61956.93 59079.61
## 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337
## 29032.71 32719.70 33159.16 35478.73 34819.67 40585.79 41661.22 36909.53
## 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345
## 36124.07 36250.72 31570.39 37568.47 38231.77 38490.18 39365.86 41151.52
## 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353
## 42973.24 42724.93 35670.63 26239.86 31583.74 30444.92 30035.03 27651.82
## 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361
## 32330.02 36083.77 40546.73 38735.99 39996.10 42134.25 49528.44 50078.94
## 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369
## 50280.58 52743.40 50227.18 49671.80 42318.04 39515.21 35692.72 33471.72
## 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377
## 29530.07 36816.95 39103.58 46988.01 40960.49 40407.73 38945.24 38478.08
## 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385
## 29347.02 33944.49 26997.13 35215.33 45546.98 49111.94 47385.54 49376.96
## 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393
## 55596.26 65080.44 58292.66 52761.61 52490.35 59868.94 60392.25 69059.77
## 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401
## 58166.88 59733.56 59293.73 58777.66 57264.76 56026.49 42786.82 51371.37
## 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409
## 50371.92 49338.28 55738.75 48282.18 47593.42 45920.31 41598.09 40428.94
## 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417
## 38493.05 32587.93 40459.76 43385.74 38058.71 33147.55 48017.41 51861.73
## 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425
## 55790.54 48260.59 44584.34 43260.47 46846.51 35266.99 34996.22 29255.68
## 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433
## 34844.87 43171.51 50062.85 46828.67 43897.70 40823.23 40711.43 37189.65
## 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441
## 33328.48 30562.83 32138.74 33987.91 31992.76 36858.37 43063.20 39815.92
## 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449
## 39521.95 42528.04 40414.34 44403.41 39650.84 30684.11 29521.71 40877.39
## 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457
## 40558.96 46209.54 41846.14 42195.76 43816.09 47533.90 37409.25 42258.02
## 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465
## 37681.76 45250.01 48769.68 51389.96 48119.85 50460.38 50661.89 52408.75
## 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473
## 51906.40 54849.86 52178.41 57229.07 50489.70 48100.88 46687.18 43311.88
## 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481
## 47067.62 54530.18 48957.71 50660.77 45450.15 43829.32 46661.97 36077.28
## 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489
## 29639.49 31508.63 34205.02 35694.84 36660.60 30302.05 42830.99 49490.50
## 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497
## 56320.08 51032.10 55864.65 63497.54 67308.55 53566.29 44145.13 42170.31
## 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505
## 42493.48 43284.55 37771.85 40170.53 45471.49 51152.51 51862.11 51972.66
## 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513
## 45675.25 47015.09 43274.69 46029.86 45695.59 39412.02 40542.99 39718.22
## 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521
## 40823.73 43463.48 36304.37 31584.24 55471.36 63631.17 67283.72 60663.51
## 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529
## 62002.85 75587.02 82562.96 57515.93 52386.54 49081.24 53459.73 52966.12
## 530 531 532 533 534 535 536
## 43150.79 48142.06 60801.14 55322.63 58719.89 62707.21 59760.14
##
## $shapiro.test
## [1] 0
##
## $levenes.test
## [1] 0
##
## $autcorr
## [1] "No autocorrelation evidence"
##
## $post_sums
## [1] "Post-Est Warning"
##
## $adjr_sq
## [1] 0.8438
##
## $fstat.bootstrap
##
## ORDINARY NONPARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP
##
##
## Call:
## boot::boot(data = x, statistic = f.stat, R = Reps, formula = depvar ~
## ., parallel = parr)
##
##
## Bootstrap Statistics :
## original bias std. error
## t1* 5.673049 0.5739496 3.18424
## t2* 1698.760239 28.0150879 237.58819
## WARNING: All values of t3* are NA
##
## $itsa.plot
##
## $booted.ints
## Parameter Lower CI Median F-value Upper CI
## 1 interrupt_var 1.807798 5.881135 12.02387
## 2 lag_depvar 1365.793102 1712.796005 2144.89427Ahora con las tendencias descompuestas
require(zoo)
require(scales)
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha2=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=ifelse(gastador=="Andrés",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(treat=ifelse(fecha2>"2019-W26",1,0)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto= dplyr::case_when(gasto=="Gas"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Tina"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Nexium"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="donaciones"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Regalo chocolates"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="filtro piscina msp"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Chromecast"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Muebles ratan"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Vacuna Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Easy"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Sopapo"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="filtro agua"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="ropa tami"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedio"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Entel"~"VTR",
gasto=="Kerosen"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Parafina"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Plata basurero"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Matri Andrés Kogan"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Wild Protein"~"Comida",
gasto=="Granola Wild Foods"~"Comida",
gasto=="uber"~"Transporte",
gasto=="Uber Reñaca"~"Transporte",
gasto=="filtro piscina mspa"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza Alfombra"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza alfombras"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Pila estufa"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Reloj"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Arreglo"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Pan Pepperino"~"Comida",
gasto=="Cookidoo"~"Comida",
gasto=="remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Bendina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Bencina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Vacunas Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
T~gasto)) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gastador, fecha,gasto, .drop=F) %>%
#dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=week(parse_date(fecha))) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(fecha_simp=tsibble::yearweek(fecha)) %>%#después de diosi. Junio 24, 2019
dplyr::summarise(monto=sum(monto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador_nombre=plyr::revalue(as.character(gastador), c("0" = "Tami", "1"="Andrés"))) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = fecha, y = monto, color=as.factor(gastador_nombre))) +
#stat_summary(geom = "line", fun.y = median, size = 1, alpha=0.5, aes(color="blue")) +
geom_line(size=1) +
facet_grid(gasto~.)+
#geom_text(aes(x = fech_ing_qrt, y = perc_dup-0.05, label = paste0(n)), vjust = -1,hjust = 0, angle=45, size=3) +
geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Semanas y Meses", subtitle="Interlineado, incorporación de la Diosi; Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") +
ggtitle( "Figura 6. Gastos Semanales por Gastador e ítem (media)") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
scale_x_yearweek(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=date_format("%m/%y")) +
guides(color = F)+
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35)) +
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
autoplot(forecast::mstl(Gastos_casa$monto, lambda = "auto",iterate=5000000,start =
lubridate::decimal_date(as.Date("2019-03-03"))))
# scale_x_continuous(breaks = seq(0,400,by=30))
msts <- forecast::msts(Gastos_casa$monto,seasonal.periods = c(7,30.5,365.25),start =
lubridate::decimal_date(as.Date("2019-03-03")))
#tbats <- forecast::tbats(msts,use.trend = FALSE)
#plot(tbats, main="Multiple Season Decomposition")library(bsts)
library(CausalImpact)
ts_week_covid<-
Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_week=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-W%V")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::group_by(fecha_week)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto,na.rm=T)/1000,min_day=min(day))%>%
dplyr::ungroup() %>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=dplyr::case_when(min_day>=as.Date("2020-03-17")~1,TRUE~0))%>%
dplyr::mutate(covid=as.factor(covid))%>%
data.frame()
ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na<-ts_week_covid$gasto_total
post_resp<-ts_week_covid$gasto_total[which(ts_week_covid$covid==1)]
ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na[which(ts_week_covid$covid==1)]<-NA
ts_week_covid$gasto_total[which(ts_week_covid$covid==0)]## [1] 98.357 4.780 56.784 50.506 64.483 67.248 49.299 35.786 58.503
## [10] 64.083 20.148 73.476 127.004 81.551 69.599 134.446 58.936 26.145
## [19] 129.927 104.989 130.860 81.893 95.697 64.579 303.471 151.106 49.275
## [28] 76.293 33.940 83.071 119.512 20.942 58.055 71.728 44.090 33.740
## [37] 59.264 77.410 60.831 63.376 48.754 235.284 29.604 115.143 72.419
## [46] 5.980 80.063 149.178 69.918 107.601 72.724 63.203 99.681 130.309
## [55] 195.898 112.066# Model 1
ssd <- list()
# Local trend, weekly-seasonal #https://qastack.mx/stats/209426/predictions-from-bsts-model-in-r-are-failing-completely - PUSE UN GENERALIZED LOCAL TREND
ssd <- AddLocalLevel(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na) #AddSemilocalLinearTrend #AddLocalLevel
# Add weekly seasonal
ssd <- AddSeasonal(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na,nseasons=5, season.duration = 52) #weeks OJO, ESTOS NO SON WEEKS VERDADEROS. PORQUE TENGO MAS DE EUN AÑO
ssd <- AddSeasonal(ssd, ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na, nseasons = 12, season.duration =4) #years
# For example, to add a day-of-week component to data with daily granularity, use model.args = list(nseasons = 7, season.duration = 1). To add a day-of-week component to data with hourly granularity, set model.args = list(nseasons = 7, season.duration = 24).
model1d1 <- bsts(ts_week_covid$gasto_total_na,
state.specification = ssd, #A list with elements created by AddLocalLinearTrend, AddSeasonal, and similar functions for adding components of state. See the help page for state.specification.
family ="student", #A Bayesian Analysis of Time-Series Event Count Data. POISSON NO SE PUEDE OCUPAR
niter = 20000,
#burn = 200, #http://finzi.psych.upenn.edu/library/bsts/html/SuggestBurn.html Suggest the size of an MCMC burn in sample as a proportion of the total run.
seed= 2125)## =-=-=-=-= Iteration 0 Mon Jan 09 00:50:54 2023
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## =-=-=-=-=#,
# dynamic.regression=T)
#plot(model1d1, main = "Model 1")
#plot(model1d1, "components")
impact2d1 <- CausalImpact(bsts.model = model1d1,
post.period.response = post_resp)
plot(impact2d1)+
xlab("Date")+
ylab("Monto Semanal (En miles)")
burn1d1 <- SuggestBurn(0.1, model1d1)corpus <- Corpus(VectorSource(Gastos_casa$obs)) # formato de texto
d <- tm_map(corpus, tolower)
d <- tm_map(d, stripWhitespace)
d <- tm_map(d, removePunctuation)
d <- tm_map(d, removeNumbers)
d <- tm_map(d, removeWords, stopwords("spanish"))
d <- tm_map(d, removeWords, "menos")
tdm <- TermDocumentMatrix(d)
m <- as.matrix(tdm) #lo vuelve una matriz
v <- sort(rowSums(m),decreasing=TRUE) #lo ordena y suma
df <- data.frame(word = names(v),freq=v) # lo nombra y le da formato de data.frame
#findFreqTerms(tdm)
#require(devtools)
#install_github("lchiffon/wordcloud2")
#wordcloud2::wordcloud2(v, size=1.2)
wordcloud(words = df$word, freq = df$freq,
max.words=100, random.order=FALSE, rot.per=0.35,
colors=brewer.pal(8, "Dark2"), main="Figura 7. Nube de Palabras, Observaciones")
fit_month_gasto <- Gastos_casa %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-%m")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))%>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto2= dplyr::case_when(gasto=="Gas"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="aspiradora"~"electrodomésticos/mantención casa",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Tina"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Nexium"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="donaciones"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Regalo chocolates"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="filtro piscina msp"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Chromecast"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Muebles ratan"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Vacuna Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Easy"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Sopapo"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="filtro agua"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="ropa tami"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Yaz"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedio"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Entel"~"VTR",
gasto=="Kerosen"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Parafina"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Plata basurero"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Matri Andrés Kogan"~"donaciones/regalos",
gasto=="Wild Protein"~"Comida",
gasto=="Granola Wild Foods"~"Comida",
gasto=="uber"~"Otros",
gasto=="Uber Reñaca"~"Otros",
gasto=="filtro piscina mspa"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza Alfombra"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Aspiradora"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Limpieza alfombras"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Pila estufa"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Reloj"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Arreglo"~"Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa",
gasto=="Pan Pepperino"~"Comida",
gasto=="Cookidoo"~"Comida",
gasto=="remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Bendina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Bencina Reñaca"~"Gas/Bencina",
gasto=="Vacunas Influenza"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Remedios"~"Farmacia",
gasto=="Plata fiestas patrias basureros"~"donaciones/regalos",
T~gasto)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=factor(fecha_month, levels=format(seq(from = as.Date("2019-03-03"), to = as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)), by = "1 month"),"%Y-%m")))%>%
dplyr::mutate(gasto2=factor(gasto2, levels=c("Agua", "Comida", "Comunicaciones","Electricidad", "Enceres", "Farmacia", "Gas/Bencina", "Diosi", "donaciones/regalos", "Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa", "VTR", "Netflix", "Otros")))%>%
dplyr::group_by(fecha_month, gasto2, .drop=F)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=sum(monto, na.rm = T)/1000)%>%
data.frame() %>% na.omit()
fit_month_gasto_23<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2023",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_22<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2022",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_21<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("2021|2022",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame()%>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_20<-
fit_month_gasto %>%
#dplyr::filter()
dplyr::filter(grepl("202",fecha_month)) %>%
#sacar el ultimo mes
dplyr::filter(as.character(format(as.Date(substr(Sys.time(),1,10)),"%Y-%m"))!=fecha_month) %>%
dplyr::group_by(gasto2) %>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_prom=mean(gasto_total, na.rm=T)) %>%
data.frame() %>% ungroup()
fit_month_gasto_23 %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_22,by="gasto2") %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_21,by="gasto2") %>%
dplyr::right_join(fit_month_gasto_20,by="gasto2") %>%
janitor::adorn_totals() %>%
#dplyr::select(-3)%>%
knitr::kable(format = "markdown", size=12, col.names= c("Item","2023","2022","2021","2020"))| Item | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agua | NA | 5.410333 | 5.629750 | 7.065750 |
| Comida | NA | 310.278417 | 314.087500 | 340.369556 |
| Comunicaciones | NA | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| Electricidad | NA | 47.072333 | 38.297667 | 32.399972 |
| Enceres | NA | 20.086417 | 17.443792 | 24.633194 |
| Farmacia | NA | 1.831667 | 7.913875 | 9.954833 |
| Gas/Bencina | NA | 44.325000 | 28.954333 | 25.055667 |
| Diosi | NA | 31.180667 | 41.934250 | 40.329944 |
| donaciones/regalos | NA | 0.000000 | 7.170083 | 7.631083 |
| Electrodomésticos/ Mantención casa | NA | 3.944000 | 30.269500 | 23.040778 |
| VTR | NA | 25.156667 | 22.121792 | 21.119111 |
| Netflix | NA | 7.151583 | 7.090167 | 7.475861 |
| Otros | NA | 3.151083 | 1.575542 | 1.050361 |
| Total | 0 | 499.588167 | 522.488250 | 540.126111 |
## Joining, by = "word"
2. UF Proyectada
Saqué la UF proyectada
#options(max.print=5000)
uf18 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2018.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf19 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2019.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf20 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2020.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf21 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2021.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
uf22 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2022.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table")
tryCatch(uf23 <-rvest::read_html("https://www.sii.cl/valores_y_fechas/uf/uf2023.htm")%>% rvest::html_nodes("table"),
error = function(c) {
uf23b <<- cbind.data.frame(Día=NA, variable=NA, value=NA)
}
)
tryCatch(uf23 <-uf23[[length(uf23)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1),
error = function(c) {
uf23 <<- cbind.data.frame(Día=NA, variable=NA, value=NA)
}
)
uf_serie<-
bind_rows(
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2018, uf18[[length(uf18)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2019, uf19[[length(uf19)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2020, uf20[[length(uf20)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2021, uf21[[length(uf21)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2022, uf22[[length(uf22)]] %>% rvest::html_table() %>% data.frame() %>% reshape2::melt(id.vars=1)),
cbind.data.frame(anio= 2023, uf23)
)
uf_serie_corrected<-
uf_serie %>%
dplyr::mutate(month=plyr::revalue(tolower(.[[3]]),c("ene" = 1, "feb"=2, "mar"=3, "abr"=4, "may"=5, "jun"=6, "jul"=7, "ago"=8, "sep"=9, "oct"=10, "nov"=11, "dic"=12))) %>%
dplyr::mutate(value=stringr::str_trim(value), value= sub("\\.","",value),value= as.numeric(sub("\\,",".",value))) %>%
dplyr::mutate(date=paste0(sprintf("%02d", .[[2]])," ",sprintf("%02d",as.numeric(month)),", ",.[[1]]), date3=lubridate::parse_date_time(date,c("%d %m, %Y"),exact=T),date2=date3) %>%
na.omit()#%>% dplyr::filter(is.na(date3))## Warning: 41 failed to parse.#Day of the month as decimal number (1–31), with a leading space for a single-digit number.
#Abbreviated month name in the current locale on this platform. (Also matches full name on input: in some locales there are no abbreviations of names.)
warning(paste0("number of observations:",nrow(uf_serie_corrected),", min uf: ",min(uf_serie_corrected$value),", min date: ",min(uf_serie_corrected $date3 )))## Warning: number of observations:1835, min uf: 26799.01, min date: 2018-01-01#
# uf_proyectado <- readxl::read_excel("uf_proyectado.xlsx") %>% dplyr::arrange(Período) %>%
# dplyr::mutate(Período= as.Date(lubridate::parse_date_time(Período, c("%Y-%m-%d"),exact=T)))
ts_uf_proy<-
ts(data = uf_serie_corrected$value,
start = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01")),
end = as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)])), frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
fit_tbats <- forecast::tbats(ts_uf_proy)
fr_fit_tbats<-forecast::forecast(fit_tbats, h=298)La proyección de la UF a 298 días más 2023-01-09 00:04:58 sería de: 36.634 pesos// Percentil 95% más alto proyectado: 40.322,53
Ahora con un modelo ARIMA automático
arima_optimal_uf = forecast::auto.arima(ts_uf_proy)
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(arima_optimal_uf, h=298), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq(from = as.Date("2018-01-01"),
to = as.Date("2018-01-01")+length(fit_tbats$fitted.values)+298, by = 90)),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01")),
to = as.numeric(as.Date("2018-01-01"))+length(fit_tbats$fitted.values)+298, by = 90)),
tickmode = "array",
tickangle = 90
))fr_fit_tbats_uf<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal_uf, h=298)dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)) %>%
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_uf)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::mutate(variable=factor(variable,levels=c("Lo.95","Lo.80","Point.Forecast","Hi.80","Hi.95"))) %>%
dplyr::arrange(variable) %>%
knitr::kable(format="markdown", caption="Tabla. Estimación UF (de aquí a 298 días) según cálculos de gastos mensuales",
col.names= c("Item","UF Proyectada (TBATS)","UF Proyectada (ARIMA)"))## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables| Item | UF Proyectada (TBATS) | UF Proyectada (ARIMA) |
|---|---|---|
| Lo.95 | 35356.81 | 35322.97 |
| Lo.80 | 35489.41 | 35478.31 |
| Point.Forecast | 36633.56 | 38579.96 |
| Hi.80 | 38629.41 | 43156.93 |
| Hi.95 | 39729.60 | 45579.83 |
3. Gastos proyectados
Lo haré en base a 2 cálculos: el gasto semanal y el gasto mensual en base a mis gastos desde marzo de 2019. La primera proyección la hice añadiendo el precio del arriendo mensual y partiendo en 2 (porque es con yo y Tami). No se incluye el último mes.
Gastos_casa_nvo <- readr::read_csv(as.character(path_sec),
col_names = c("Tiempo", "gasto", "fecha", "obs", "monto", "gastador",
"link"),skip=1) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha= lubridate::parse_date_time(fecha, c("%d/%m/%Y"),exact=T)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(fecha_month=strftime(fecha, format = "%Y-%m")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(day=as.Date(as.character(lubridate::floor_date(fecha, "day"))))
Gastos_casa_m <-
Gastos_casa_nvo %>% dplyr::group_by(fecha_month)%>%
dplyr::summarise(gasto_total=(sum(monto)+500000)/1000,fecha=first(fecha))%>%
data.frame()
uf_serie_corrected_m <-
uf_serie_corrected %>% dplyr::mutate(ano_m=paste0(anio,"-",sprintf("%02d",as.numeric(month)))) %>% dplyr::group_by(ano_m)%>%
dplyr::summarise(uf=(mean(value))/1000,fecha=first(date3))%>%
data.frame() %>%
dplyr::filter(fecha>="2019-02-28")
#Error: Error in standardise_path(file) : object 'enlace_gastos' not found
ts_uf_serie_corrected_m<-
ts(data = uf_serie_corrected_m$uf[-length(uf_serie_corrected_m$uf)],
start = 1,
end = nrow(uf_serie_corrected_m),
frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
ts_gastos_casa_m<-
ts(data = Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total[-length(Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total)],
start = 1,
end = nrow(Gastos_casa_m),
frequency = 1,
deltat = 1, ts.eps = getOption("ts.eps"))
fit_tbats_m <- forecast::tbats(ts_gastos_casa_m)
seq_dates<-format(seq(as.Date("2019/03/01"), by = "month", length = dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), "%m\n'%y")
autplo2t<-
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(fit_tbats_m, h=12), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos (en miles)"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq_dates[seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)]),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)),
tickmode = "array"#"array"
))
autplo2tAhora asumiendo un modelo ARIMA, e incluimos como regresor al precio de la UF.
paste0("Optimo pero sin regresor")## [1] "Optimo pero sin regresor"arima_optimal = forecast::auto.arima(ts_gastos_casa_m)
arima_optimal## Series: ts_gastos_casa_m
## ARIMA(1,0,0) with non-zero mean
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 mean
## 0.3174 997.7521
## s.e. 0.1442 34.6825
##
## sigma^2 = 27808: log likelihood = -306.2
## AIC=618.4 AICc=618.96 BIC=623.95paste0("Optimo pero con regresor")## [1] "Optimo pero con regresor"arima_optimal2 = forecast::auto.arima(ts_gastos_casa_m, xreg=as.numeric(ts_uf_serie_corrected_m[1:(length(Gastos_casa_m$gasto_total))]))
arima_optimal2## Series: ts_gastos_casa_m
## Regression with ARIMA(1,0,0) errors
##
## Coefficients:
## ar1 xreg
## 0.3406 33.3824
## s.e. 0.1387 1.1558
##
## sigma^2 = 26036: log likelihood = -304.66
## AIC=615.32 AICc=615.88 BIC=620.87forecast_uf<-
cbind.data.frame(fecha=as.Date(seq(as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)])),(as.numeric(as.Date(uf_serie_corrected$date3[length(uf_serie_corrected$date3)]))+299),by=1), origin = "1970-01-01"),forecast::forecast(fit_tbats, h=300)) %>%
dplyr::mutate(ano_m=stringr::str_extract(fecha,".{7}")) %>%
dplyr::group_by(ano_m)%>%
dplyr::summarise(uf=(mean(`Hi 95`,na.rm=T))/1000,fecha=first(fecha))%>%
data.frame()
autplo2t2<-
autoplotly::autoplotly(forecast::forecast(arima_optimal2,xreg=c(forecast_uf$uf[1],forecast_uf$uf), h=12), ts.colour = "darkred",
predict.colour = "blue", predict.linetype = "dashed")%>%
plotly::layout(showlegend = F,
yaxis = list(title = "Gastos (en miles)"),
xaxis = list(
title="Fecha",
ticktext = as.list(seq_dates[seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)]),
tickvals = as.list(seq(from = 1, to = (dim(Gastos_casa_m)[1]+12), by = 3)),
tickmode = "array"#"array"
))
autplo2t2fr_fit_tbats_m<-forecast::forecast(fit_tbats_m, h=12)
fr_fit_tbats_m2<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal, h=12)
fr_fit_tbats_m3<-forecast::forecast(arima_optimal2, h=12,xreg=c(forecast_uf$uf[1],forecast_uf$uf))
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m3)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)), dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m2)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::right_join(dplyr::group_by(reshape2::melt(data.frame(fr_fit_tbats_m)),variable) %>% dplyr::summarise(max=max(value)),by="variable") %>%
dplyr::mutate(variable=factor(variable,levels=c("Lo.95","Lo.80","Point.Forecast","Hi.80","Hi.95"))) %>%
dplyr::arrange(variable) %>%
knitr::kable(format="markdown", caption="Estimación en miles de la plata a gastar en el futuro (de aquí a 12 meses) según cálculos de gastos mensuales",
col.names= c("Item","Modelo ARIMA con regresor (UF)","Modelo ARIMA sin regresor","Modelo TBATS")) ## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables
## No id variables; using all as measure variables| Item | Modelo ARIMA con regresor (UF) | Modelo ARIMA sin regresor | Modelo TBATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lo.95 | 990.1035 | 653.0927 | 710.8832 |
| Lo.80 | 1106.5307 | 772.3914 | 795.2986 |
| Point.Forecast | 1326.4670 | 997.7519 | 983.0669 |
| Hi.80 | 1546.4032 | 1223.1123 | 1281.8781 |
| Hi.95 | 1662.8305 | 1342.4110 | 1475.2320 |
4. Gastos mensuales (resumen manual)
path_sec2<- paste0("https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/",Sys.getenv("SUPERSECRET"),"/export?format=csv&id=",Sys.getenv("SUPERSECRET"),"&gid=847461368")
Gastos_casa_mensual_2022 <- readr::read_csv(as.character(path_sec2),
#col_names = c("Tiempo", "gasto", "fecha", "obs", "monto", "gastador","link"),
skip=0)## Rows: 55 Columns: 4
## -- Column specification --------------------------------------------------------
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (1): mes_ano
## dbl (3): n, Andrés, Tami
##
## i Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## i Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.head(Gastos_casa_mensual_2022,5) %>%
knitr::kable("markdown",caption="Resumen mensual, primeras 5 observaciones")| n | mes_ano | Andrés | Tami |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | marzo_2019 | 68268 | 175533 |
| 2 | abril_2019 | 55031 | 152640 |
| 3 | mayo_2019 | 192219 | 152985 |
| 4 | junio_2019 | 84961 | 291067 |
| 5 | julio_2019 | 205893 | 241389 |
(
Gastos_casa_mensual_2022 %>%
reshape2::melt(id.var=c("n","mes_ano")) %>%
dplyr::mutate(gastador=as.factor(variable)) %>%
dplyr::select(-variable) %>%
ggplot2::ggplot(aes(x = n, y = value, color=gastador)) +
scale_color_manual(name="Gastador", values=c("red", "blue"))+
geom_line(size=1) +
#geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2019-06-24"),linetype = "dashed") +
labs(y="Gastos (en miles)",x="Meses", subtitle="Azul= Tami; Rojo= Andrés") +
ggtitle( "Gastos Mensuales (total manual)") +
scale_y_continuous(labels = f <- function(x) paste0(x/1000)) +
# scale_color_manual(name = "Gastador", values= c("blue", "red"), labels = c("Tami", "Andrés")) +
# scale_x_yearweek(breaks = "1 month", minor_breaks = "1 week", labels=date_format("%m/%y")) +
# guides(color = F)+
sjPlot::theme_sjplot2() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(vjust = 0.5,angle = 35)) +
theme(
panel.border = element_blank(),
panel.grid.major = element_blank(),
panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
axis.line = element_line(colour = "black")
)
) %>% ggplotly()Session Info
Sys.getenv("R_LIBS_USER")## [1] "D:\\a\\_temp\\Library"sessionInfo()## R version 4.1.2 (2021-11-01)
## Platform: x86_64-w64-mingw32/x64 (64-bit)
## Running under: Windows Server x64 (build 20348)
##
## Matrix products: default
##
## locale:
## [1] LC_COLLATE=Spanish_Chile.1252 LC_CTYPE=Spanish_Chile.1252
## [3] LC_MONETARY=Spanish_Chile.1252 LC_NUMERIC=C
## [5] LC_TIME=Spanish_Chile.1252
##
## attached base packages:
## [1] grid stats graphics grDevices utils datasets methods
## [8] base
##
## other attached packages:
## [1] CausalImpact_1.3.0 bsts_0.9.9 BoomSpikeSlab_1.2.5
## [4] Boom_0.9.11 scales_1.2.1 ggiraph_0.8.5
## [7] tidytext_0.4.1 DT_0.26 autoplotly_0.1.4
## [10] rvest_1.0.3 plotly_4.10.1 xts_0.12.2
## [13] forecast_8.20 wordcloud_2.6 RColorBrewer_1.1-3
## [16] SnowballC_0.7.0 tm_0.7-10 NLP_0.2-1
## [19] tsibble_1.1.3 forcats_0.5.2 dplyr_1.0.10
## [22] purrr_1.0.0 tidyr_1.2.1 tibble_3.1.8
## [25] ggplot2_3.4.0 tidyverse_1.3.2 sjPlot_2.8.12
## [28] lattice_0.20-45 gridExtra_2.3 plotrix_3.8-2
## [31] sparklyr_1.7.9 httr_1.4.4 readxl_1.4.1
## [34] zoo_1.8-11 stringr_1.5.0 stringi_1.7.8
## [37] DataExplorer_0.8.2 data.table_1.14.6 reshape2_1.4.4
## [40] fUnitRoots_4021.80 plyr_1.8.8 readr_2.1.3
##
## loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
## [1] utf8_1.2.2 tidyselect_1.2.0 lme4_1.1-31
## [4] htmlwidgets_1.6.0 munsell_0.5.0 codetools_0.2-18
## [7] its.analysis_1.6.0 withr_2.5.0 colorspace_2.0-3
## [10] ggfortify_0.4.15 highr_0.10 knitr_1.41
## [13] uuid_1.1-0 rstudioapi_0.14 TTR_0.24.3
## [16] labeling_0.4.2 emmeans_1.8.3 slam_0.1-50
## [19] bit64_4.0.5 farver_2.1.1 datawizard_0.6.5
## [22] fBasics_4021.93 rprojroot_2.0.3 vctrs_0.5.1
## [25] generics_0.1.3 xfun_0.36 timechange_0.1.1
## [28] R6_2.5.1 bitops_1.0-7 cachem_1.0.6
## [31] assertthat_0.2.1 networkD3_0.4 vroom_1.6.0
## [34] nnet_7.3-16 googlesheets4_1.0.1 gtable_0.3.1
## [37] spatial_7.3-14 timeDate_4022.108 rlang_1.0.6
## [40] forge_0.2.0 systemfonts_1.0.4 splines_4.1.2
## [43] lazyeval_0.2.2 gargle_1.2.1 selectr_0.4-2
## [46] broom_1.0.2 yaml_2.3.6 abind_1.4-5
## [49] modelr_0.1.10 crosstalk_1.2.0 backports_1.4.1
## [52] quantmod_0.4.20 tokenizers_0.3.0 tools_4.1.2
## [55] ellipsis_0.3.2 gplots_3.1.3 jquerylib_0.1.4
## [58] Rcpp_1.0.9 base64enc_0.1-3 fracdiff_1.5-2
## [61] haven_2.5.1 fs_1.5.2 magrittr_2.0.3
## [64] timeSeries_4021.105 lmtest_0.9-40 reprex_2.0.2
## [67] googledrive_2.0.0 mvtnorm_1.1-3 sjmisc_2.8.9
## [70] hms_1.1.2 evaluate_0.19 xtable_1.8-4
## [73] sjstats_0.18.2 ggeffects_1.1.4 compiler_4.1.2
## [76] KernSmooth_2.23-20 crayon_1.5.2 minqa_1.2.5
## [79] htmltools_0.5.4 tzdb_0.3.0 lubridate_1.9.0
## [82] DBI_1.1.3 sjlabelled_1.2.0 dbplyr_2.2.1
## [85] MASS_7.3-54 boot_1.3-28 Matrix_1.5-3
## [88] car_3.1-1 cli_3.5.0 quadprog_1.5-8
## [91] parallel_4.1.2 insight_0.18.8 igraph_1.3.5
## [94] pkgconfig_2.0.3 xml2_1.3.3 bslib_0.4.2
## [97] estimability_1.4.1 anytime_0.3.9 snakecase_0.11.0
## [100] janeaustenr_1.0.0 digest_0.6.31 janitor_2.1.0
## [103] rmarkdown_2.19 cellranger_1.1.0 curl_4.3.3
## [106] gtools_3.9.4 urca_1.3-3 nloptr_2.0.3
## [109] lifecycle_1.0.3 nlme_3.1-153 jsonlite_1.8.4
## [112] tseries_0.10-52 carData_3.0-5 viridisLite_0.4.1
## [115] fansi_1.0.3 pillar_1.8.1 fastmap_1.1.0
## [118] glue_1.6.2 bayestestR_0.13.0 bit_4.0.5
## [121] sass_0.4.4 performance_0.10.1 r2d3_0.2.6
## [124] caTools_1.18.2#save.image("__analisis.RData")
sesion_info <- devtools::session_info()
dplyr::select(
tibble::as_tibble(sesion_info$packages),
c(package, loadedversion, source)
) %>%
DT::datatable(filter = 'top', colnames = c('Row number' =1,'Variable' = 2, 'Percentage'= 3),
caption = htmltools::tags$caption(
style = 'caption-side: top; text-align: left;',
'', htmltools::em('Packages')),
options=list(
initComplete = htmlwidgets::JS(
"function(settings, json) {",
"$(this.api().tables().body()).css({
'font-family': 'Helvetica Neue',
'font-size': '50%',
'code-inline-font-size': '15%',
'white-space': 'nowrap',
'line-height': '0.75em',
'min-height': '0.5em'
});",#;
"}")))